Violence and financial crisis test the Noboa regime in Ecuador
Ecuador President, Conservative Daniel Nobova, Over Flow. Sunday, Sunday, Re -elected in the second election round with 56% In votes, almost 12 points higher than their opponent, The Coresta Louisa Gonzalez. His advantage. As an unexpected way. In the first round of last February, only 17,000 votes separated him from Gonzalez; Now, about 1.2 million. While the Left Candidate was practically stagnant, Nobova shot. With this extraordinary support, Ecuador is great in the history of democratic, Nobova begins a four -year command on May 24, which is the first; The current one is only a year and a half, Time to remove his ancestor Gillermo Loso. However, it does not have an empty check. The consensus in Ecuador is that Noboa won more for rejecting Korejam rather than his own merit. The President has great challenges, such as controlling violence, finding solutions to the highest in Latin America and the economy in crisis.
Ecuador’s economy did not run well in 2024. According to the latest World Bank report, GDP fell 2.5% “in an environment marked by power shortage, high violence rates and political uncertainty.” Consumption, industrial production and labor income have fallen. Poverty has increased to 31.9%. Last May, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved the 48 -month program for $ 4,000 million for Ecuador, of which 1.5 billion was immediately up. The World Bank hopes that the result of the rain and the “more sustainable power proposal” has been resolved, the GDP is up 2.3%. This depends on the ability to guarantee the rule and, above all, when controlling violence.
Ecuador today has 38.8 violent deaths for every 100,000 residents in Latin America today. The dollarized economy, which is a drug trafficking, attracting ports and facilitating money laundering, has increased exponentially over the past 10 years. Nobova applied from the beginning of his hard hand command: It was militant of prisons and territories and sought the help of logistics from the United States. The results were thin, the most violent month in the history of January, with about 900 homicides. Political and educational analyst Caroline Ovila sees “the scenario similar to Lasso in 2021.” Its popularity has increased to 90%, but it has lost it in three months because it has become the agenda. If Nobova does not have a stretch of security in the security in three months, he loses his agenda, “he warned.” Challenges are security and economy, ”said Sebastian Hurtado, president of the political risk of profits.” Safety was similar to a year ago and I didn’t see Nobova’s clear strategy to handle it. On the other hand, Ecuador’s GDP has entered into a deal and in 2025 it will have the worst performance of the area. The President must see how the growth will solve, ”he said.
And and Nobova did not find solutions in short -term, dangerous rule. Political scientist Jacobo Garcia thought it was the mother of all the wars, especially when Noboa had no partisan structure and was in front of the citizens’ revolution, “former President Rafael Korea’s movement, and now condemned the election fraud. Gonjalez did not recognize his defeat and denied the “strange election fraud” that he did not save with evidence or was not accepted by international observers. For Caroline Evila, “the confusion of fraud is not related to the vote, which is a complaint to structural fraud, the inclined court. Corism can be used to remove Nobova legitimacy.
Can Noboa resist? Sebastian Hurtado sees a series of “positive” points. “It is easy for him to build a majority in the assembly, and the votes of the more losers with the defeat and his reforms have been ahead of his reforms. In addition, he allows him to attract talent not only available as a interim president.” For that, he said, “It does not come to war against crimes, but to know what his country project is.” Nobova already has votes; He must now prove that he has the ability to do so.
