Syrian hope is “suspended by thin thread”

In December 2024, the fall of Assad’s regime initially raised great hopes for a good future in Syria. The political evaluation of the new ruling power of the Ahmed Al -Shahara (formerly known as the headquarters for the liberation of Al -Sham “is called Abu Muhammad al -Jolani) and his allies in the government 100 days later?

Before going into the details, we must realize that the challenges facing Syria today are politically, economical and social. The country is influenced by regional and political breakdown and through heavy economic challenges in its various forms by foreign impact and occupation. In fact, the reconstruction cost in Syria is estimated at $ 250 to $ 400 billion, and more than half of the Syrians are still displacing the country inside and outside. 90 percent of the population live below the poverty line, and 16.7 million (ie 3 out of 4 in Syria) depend on humanitarian assistance, according to the 2024 United Nations number. According to this data, any political actor who has succeeded in Assad’s regime will face a huge job.

Therefore, in view of the ability of the new authority, especially its background, to calm outdoor fears, relatively, and establishing official relations with regional and international forces is considered an undesirable success. Many regional and international actors have identified new authority and started to counter it. The European Union and the United Kingdom have significantly stopped sanctions on certain sectors and organizations and Paris received its Sharia today.

The US administration, led by Donald Trump, has not yet decided on Syria, and in January 2025, in January 2025, it has maintained sanctions imposed on it, which has reduced the sector on the fuel and financial transactions.

However, the first hundred days of the new authority are not fully positively positive or the country is sufficiently evidence that the country is going in the right direction in the long run, as the main problem is in the political and economical level, as well as in the general trends of energy in its social vision.

State agencies and security services

First, the new ruling authority headed by the headquarters for the liberation of Al -Sham used the transition phase to strengthen its power over state agencies. After the fall of the Assad regime, the Care Taker government is particularly close to the commission members or those close to it, until the formation of a new government at the end of March 2025.

Similarly, Sharia has nominated new ministers, security persons and governors of various regions, they are in power or armed groups. In addition to the security services, the new governing authorities have established the new Syrian army, and appointed leaders from the headquarters for the liberation of Al -Sham, the new defense minister and al -Sham’s headquarters, Mastaf Abu Quasrara, who has been appointed as a simple and social act for example. The authority has appointed new leaders of the circle of unions, professional associations and commercial chambers of Commerce.

The lack of a comprehensive democratic process, reflects in various programs, conferences and committees of participants and laid the first foundations for the country’s future, especially “Syrian National Dialogue Conference”, which has been widely criticized for his preparations, representation and intensity, especially in terms of representation.

The temporary constitution, signed by the President of the interim Syria, has been widely criticized by many active political and social organizations, with the lack of transparency in the drafting committee or its contents. Although the temporary constitution has officially declared the division of the authorities, it is practically blocked by widespread authorities who have been practically limited to the presidency.

The powers of fun

In this case, the final statement of the new Syrian government is more comprehensively described, with the appointment of religious minorities (Alawaite and Droz) and racist (Kurdish) ministers and ministers. However, personalities close to Sharia have main positions. For example, Asad Al -Shibani and Abu Khazra Guide held their posts in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Defense respectively, respectively, Anas Khattab was appointed to the Interior Ministry, and in the Ministry of Justice.

In addition, the actual powers of this government are still unclear, especially as the Syrian National Security Council has been formed, led by Ahmed Al -Shahara, coordinating and maintaining national security and political policies.

Similarly, the General Secretariat for “Political Affairs” was established in late March, under the aegis of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and its work, monitoring the management of political activities and events, participating in the creation and drawing public plans in political matters, and prevent the assets of the “Progressive National Front” parties.

Neolberry Economy

At the financial level, the government’s tendency or participation has not been discussed outside its closest groups. Moreover, since the authority has received its temporary mission, the current government’s decisions have exceeded, and in practice, it has long been a future model for Syria, which has long been a model of economic Neolibalism, which is a model of financial neolibalism. It is seen through the privatization of state assets, market liberalization and hardness, including reducing bread support and home gas cylinders, all of which are negative and directly affected by the already affected classes. This type of economic approach is usually for the benefit of businessmen and economic highs.

In addition, the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Foreign Commerce has announced that one -third of the country will be eliminating the workforce, that is, according to the new authority, the employees are receiving their salaries, but they are not working. ” Since then, there are no official estimates for the number of employees who have been deleted, but some people currently spend 3 months of payment holidays, and whether they are working. After this decision, the protests of the dismissed workers or the arrest of the nationwide were erupted.

At the same time, the promises of the new authorities have been repeated by increasing the salaries of state employees by 400 percent since the beginning of this year, with minimum 1.123,560 Syrian pounds (about $ 86 US). It is a step in the right direction, but it is still awaiting implementation, and in the light of the intensity of the financial crisis, it is not enough to bear the costs of living. The minimum monthly expenses of 5 family in Damascus are estimated at 8 million Syrian pounds at the end of March 2025 (equal to 666 666).

In addition, Damascus has reduced customs duties on more than 260 Turkish products, which hurt national production, especially in the industrial and agriculture sectors, first competing with Turkish imports. In the first quarter of this year, Turkey’s exports to Syria were about $ 508 million, an increase of 31.2 percent, compared to the same period in 2024 (about $ 387 million) and the Turkish Ministry.

Social political fragmentation

When it comes to political and social breakdown in the country, the new ruling authority has not been able to solve it, and the memory of the recent understanding of the self -governance of the Damascus government and North and Eastern Syria, and the population of the population suffering from some types of countries in the Svada region, and the ruthedadiantions, and the temporary constitution. In addition, the recent security events that started on the coast, led to the killing of hundreds of citizens, did not increase the sector tensions.

Violence came after violence by conducting the remnants of the Assad regime, which coordinated the attacks on security services and members of the citizens, but under the excuse of fighting “remnants”, the logic and retaliation of hatred, by creating false equality between the common and previous regime.

Although the new authority tries to surround and to cumulates the fire, it has failed practically to prevent the growth of violence and sectoral hostility in recent events with this section, and the authority in Damascus continues to describe these actions and issued “non -decisiplined elements” without issuing.

In addition to the sector dynamics in the country, the recent dramatic events contributed to the surface, failing to create a clear mechanism for increasing comprehensive and long -term transformation justice with the aim of punishing all individuals and groups of war crimes. It can play a key role in retaliation and increase the sector, but the mechanism of transformation justice can open many files that do not want the current authority in its right way.

The benefits of Iran, Israel and Turkey

In the light of the breakup of the country, some foreign countries, especially Iran and Israel, are interested in fueling sectorian and ethnic tensions in the country, to exploit it, justifying a particular section and creating more volatility by demonstrating themselves. For example, Israeli authorities have doubled their willingness to verify their willingness to interfere with the “protect” of Druz population in Syria. However, major social and political forces have rejected the calls most of these calls and confirmed their affiliation with Syria and the unity of the country.

At the same time, the Turkish army did not stop attacks on the Kurdish population in the northeastern Syria, despite the end of the deal between Damascus and Syria’s self -governance to Syria.

In conclusion, the first hundred days of the new authorities have taken the democracy of Syria’s democratic and fair’s optimism in the future of the Fair, and the fears of the transformation gradually become a legitimate and unique system, until the fears of becoming a legitimate system.