IMF for the world’s recession for the trade war, but it warns that it makes “great sales” in its instructions | The economy

The trade war announced by Donald Trump is testing the resistance of the global economy. Its effects are significant according to the Managing Director The International Monetary Fund (IMF)Crystalina Georgiva. In his speech before the body meetings next week, Georgewa ATED was a sense of reference review that Georgiva would publish IMF next Tuesday. “Our new growth expectations have great sales, but not a recession. We also see An increase in inflation instructions For some countries, he came up before claiming a contract to end the trade war.

“Uncertainty about trade policies He has reached an unprecedented level, ”Georgeiva said it highlighted the impact on the markets.” It reminds us that we are living in the world Sudden and serious changes“As seen with US dollar and Treasure bonds, he warned that long uncertainty would increase the risk of tensions in financial markets.” These movements should be taken as a warning. If the economic conditions are worsening, everyone will be harmed, ”he said.

Georgeway has escaped from initiating direct criticism of Trump and tried to explain the reasons for creating a sprouted inconvenience. “Trade tensions They have been like a boiled pot for a long time and now burst, “he said.” Too much, What we see is the result of the incision of belief: Belief in the International System and belief between the nations, ”he added.

IMF Managing Director stressed this World Economic Integration has been out of poverty A large number of people and the entire world have improved, but not everyone has benefited. Communities have been evacuated by rehabilitation of jobs and salary under pressure due to the increasing availability of cheap labor. The pandemic for the traffic chain of the supply chain was later joined by prices. “Many people have accused the international economy of the injustices they realize in their lives,” he accepted.

An unfair feeling in some places

In his opinion, commercial distortions – tariff and non -tariff obstacles – feed the negative perception of the multilateral system, which is considered to be not guaranteed equal to equal conditions. “In some places this unjust concept feeds the lecture: we face the rules, while others take advantage of the system with no permission. Trade imbalance has reduced trade tensions,” he said.

Added to this, he explained the national security. “In a multipolar world, the manufacturing space is more important than the price. The logic of national security should be made in the country, from the computer chips to the steel, and the need to pay for it. Self -sapicancy gives importance.”

“All these concerns, taken together, have reached a highway, in which the industry has left us more attention than the services sector, in which national interests are imposed on global concerns and causing powerful reactions to powerful reactions.”

Georgeway then analyzed the “important” consequences of the trade war. He has highlighted how the United States has been filmed at the generations that have not been seen for generations and how other countries have responded. In addition, the consequences are extended. “Although the Giants are facing each other, smaller countries are caught in cross currents. Despite the low imports of China, EU and the United States, GDP, the world’s three largest importers,” their actions affect other parts of the world. “

The smallest developed economies and the most developing markets rely more on trade and therefore are more exposed, he argues. Low -income countries face an additional challenge of the fall of the auxiliary flows because donor countries are focusing on their internal issues.

There is a cost to uncertainty

The effects are observed in many ways. First, he said, “uncertainty is expensive.” “The complexity of modern supply chains causes a wide range of imported inputs in national products. The cost of an object is influenced by the tariffs of dozens of countries. The bilateral tariff world;

Second, the growth of commercial obstacles “immediately affects growth.” “Tariffs, similar to all taxes, increase the activity at the cost of reducing and displacement,” he said. If the national markets are large, they will also create incentives for foreign companies to respond with investment in the country, which produces new activity and new jobs. “However, it takes time,” he made it clear.

Third, Georgeiva suggests “protectionism” declines for long -term productivity, especially in small economies. ” He argues that protecting the competitive industries will reduce incentives for the effective allocation of resources, thanks to the profits of productivity and competitiveness, and that eliminating the entrepreneurial spirit will lead to special requests for defense and state support.

“Trade is like water”

“Finally, trade is like water: when countries increase obstacles in the form of non -tariff obstacles, the flow is diverted. Some sectors of some countries may be filled with cheap imports; some may suffer from shortage.

According to Georgeiva, according to this situation, “all countries must double their efforts to keep the order in their own homes.” “There is no place for strengthening economic and economic stability in a world with greater uncertainty and frequent disturbances, and there is no place to delay reforms with the goal of improving growth ability.”

The Fund Managing Director urged countries to clean public accounts and if you had to face disturbances with new financial support, it was “specific and temporary”. He urged to accelerate reforms to increase growth and prevent gross economic imbalance. Central banks have also stated that inflation expectations should be monitored. Georgeway has given some concrete recipes: the flexibility of developing market economies should be protected as a barrier buffer. He said that countries with a consistent public debt should act in advance to restore sustainability, “in some cases a difficult decision to request debt reconstruction,” he said.

In addition, he analyzed the most important economies. China asks to increase private consumption and grow from industry to services. The EU is demanding low limits on banking union and capital markets and internal services. The United States warns about the need to put the public debt in the way: “To achieve this, it is necessary to significantly reduce the federal budget deficit, which requires the version of the cost.”

Georgeway, above all, promises to be “aimed at” there may be cooperation in the Multipolar world “.” In relation to trade process, to resume the global trend towards reducing tariffs, there must be an agreement among the main actors that guarantee openings and guarantee more equivalent conditions, and to remove non -tariffs and distorts. ” And, to facilitate the transformation, the policies should be given time to private financial agents to receive and obtain the results, ”he said.

He concluded with the optimistic message: “There are opportunities in the challenges,” he said. “The secret of the moment’s use of the moment is to concentrate all the energy from protecting the old one, but building a new one: a more balanced and elastic world economy.”