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In the first quarter, China exceeded economic growth expectations, supporting strong consumption and industrial production, but analysts fear that the moment of the moment is slowing down; American customs duties have been the biggest threat to Asian power for decades.

President Donald Trump has increased customs duties to a high level on Chinese goods, prompting Beijing to impose a retaliatory fee on American imports, which increased losses on the world’s two largest economies and moving the economic markets.

The data showed that China’s GDP increased by 5.4 percent from March 5.4 percent in the first quarter of January compared to the previous year, but it exceeded analysts’ estimates at the Reuters Poll, which increased by 5.1 percent.

However, in some of the next quarter, the momentum is expected to slow down; The injury of American customs duties affects the crucial export engine, which increases the pressure to provide more relief policies on Chinese leaders, to maintain stability in the world’s second largest economy.

Economic Intelligence Unit Chief Economist Shu Tianchian said that the government’s inspiration has strengthened the use and support of the government’s inspiration and described the 5.4 % growth rate as a “very good start”.

“Over the past two years, China has seen a strong performance in the first quarter, the second quarter has been frustrating,” he said, needing “strong and timeless political response” due to extra stress from American customs duties.

Exports are the only bright point in the Chinese economy; A commercial surplus last year has reached a last year’s trillion dollars, such as the continuous stagnation of the long real estate sector and the slowdown in domestic demand for strong recovery.

It complicates the political challenge of Beijing; Trump constantly killed a large growth engine on a massive Chinese commercial engine.

Chinese Prime Minister Lee Kiang said that the country’s exporters will have to deal with “deep” external changes and have pledged to support further local use.

Investors in China have ignored the better data that has been better than expected, which has been triggered to reduce standard standard stimulation by 1 percent and harm the yuan; Faith is weak amidst vague expectations for growth.

“Unprecedented” challenge

In fact, the quadrilateral momentum lights the poor performance; In the first quarter, the economy increased by 1.2 percent, from October to December.

The Reuters Pole was shown to increase by 4.5 percent on an annual basis in 2025, which was shown from 5 percent last year and less than 5 percent. Many analysts have reduced their expectations for this annual GDP.

Quoting American punitive customs duties, a Zed Bank on Wednesday reduced its estimate for GDP growth of 2025 from 4.8 percent to 4.2 percent, from 4.5 percent to 4.3 percent in 2026.

UPS more pessimism; Against the constant increase in customs duties between China and the United States, the Asian giant has increased from 4 percent to 3.4 percent this week, and Beijing offers additional incentives.

“We believe that the injury of customs duties can cause unprecedented challenges to China’s exports and we believe that there will be major changes in the local economy,” UPS Bank analysts said.

Although many other countries are influenced by American customs duties, Trump is targeting China with the largest drawings. Last week, customs duties on China were up 145 percent, which prompted Beijing to increase fees on American goods to 125 percent, describing American trade actions as “joke”.

Unemployment and contraction issues

The growing trade war with the United States has weakened some sparkles of positive economic data.

Retail sales – the main measure of consumption – rose 5.9 per cent on the annual basis in March, and after 4 per cent in January and February (February), the growth growth of factory production increased to 5.9 per cent in the first two months in the first two months. Both numbers exceed analysts’ expectations.

Retail sales the height, home electronics and furniture sales with two numbers of sharp gains, the government supports exchanging consumer goods.

But the slowdown in the real estate market in China is burdened with the overall growth. In the first three months, real estate investment declined by 9.9 per cent on an annual basis, while in January and February. Prices of new homes have not changed in March compared to the previous month.

The widespread inspiration of the data on Wednesday was uneven economic restoration, especially the continuation of every inflation pressure that increases concerns about high unemployment rates and weak demand.

“Good GDP does not reflect the general economic health of the economy.” “There are major concerns of hesitation and youth unemployment,” he said.

Moreover, analysts say that the increase in Chinese exports in March – the acceleration of factories in the goods to overcome the latest Trump definitions – the American American drawings are severely reflected with the implementation of American drawings in the coming months.

A wide area of ​​motivation

Policy designers have repeatedly emphasized that there are widespread space and tools to support the country’s economy, and after a series of stages for monetary facilities at the end of last year, analysts are expecting more relief policies in the coming months.

Earlier this month, Fitch reduced the sovereign credit rating of China, recognizing the rapid growth of government loans and losses to the public economy, and the trouble in achieving balance between the efforts of policy designers with the aim of expanding consumption to prevent trade slowing down.

“The current situation is the same as the” Kofid -19 “spread in 2020, and in 2008, China, like the global financial crisis in 2008, is similar to the negative shocks that have seen in the past,” said the Young of the Bank of A Z. We are looking for limited options for Chinese authorities to deal with the wound of customs duties, excluding great economic expansion. “