The national publication between the prominent addresses this issue in an analysis, on the pretext that the bomb’s acquisition cannot solve the problem of the deterrence of the Islamic Republic. The analytical report said: “The acquisition of the atomic bomb by Iran will not only solve the problem of deterrenceBut I will also release him to The arms race that cannot win. get rid of Leave Iran’s nuclear bomb with one deterrent tool at the highest levels of tensionWhile the challenges facing Iran are present on all levels of this tension scale, not only at the top.
In Iran’s internal debate about the nucleus, there are several views: from Full construction of the nuclear pumpreview Iranian nuclear doctrineí, Outoes, which prohibits the use of nuclear weapons, Enriching to the level of armsAdvanced research on the manufacture of pump or a mixture of this. All these options aim to increase the power of Iran’s deterrence.
Some arguments also refer to Kenneth Waltz theory, which believed the spread of nuclear weapons in the Middle East Regional stability can be born if the Iranian bomb is fired against the Israeli bomb. From this perspective, Iran’s desire to obtain the bomb seems reasonable. A operational nuclear program would make any enemy think twice before attacking Iran.
Can they make a nuclear weapon?
However, a lot of attention focused on SI Iran can quickly Without causing an attack by Israel or the United States. Sufficient attention has not been paid to the “next day” and this was not achieved. On that day Iran’s entrance to the world of deterrent nucleusP; A world is not a destination, but the field of new competition, and in this field, Iran does not have the place that is compatible with it.
A simple deterrence equation: If a atomic bomb is launchedand Nuclear response is obtained. The Islamic Republic has imposed its death penalty if it really used a nuclear weapon. Therefore, so that deterrence is effective, he must persuade his opponents, either he acts irrationally, or he appreciates the controversial issue instead of remaining. Otherwise, the enemy can address and ignore nuclear threats to Iran.
Iran’s irrational advantage
Iran has an advantage in terms of what some of its enemies consider irrational. The Islamic Republic is based on religious ideologyWhich leaves open to imagine that he could be ready to commit suicide to destroy Israel. Some system faces also speak with what appears to be a mixture of intolerance and rhetoric; A useful mixture to urge the irrationality. Even Iran’s foreign policy is sometimes logical, for example, The hostility towards Israel, which has no land borders with Iran.
However, the most arrested examination undermines the assumption that Iran is irrational. The country can have irrational targets (such as the destruction of Israel), but to chase them in completely rational ways. Sometimes, Iran’s foreign policy has acted very calculated: In response to the killing of Qasim SolimaniFor example, gave a A limited and predictable responseAnd avoid confrontation with a superpower, and preserve it, allowing Israel to overcome their friends, Hamas and Hezbollah.
In addition, those who take the religious motives of Iran seriously to wonder why the regime withdraws from defending the Shiite holy places in Syria and did not allow their forces to liberate a battle in Karbala. During the past twenty years, Iran has always been concerned that its nuclear program did not cross the red lines It can cause an attack. Also in the bosom of sovereignty, there are sounds that express their dissatisfaction with this caution.
Iran can try to look more unpredictable, for example, support extremist tribes in Friday prayers or choose less predictable leaders. However, these measures are limited. There are still real decisions, and decisions indicate directions. And if these trends are rational, Difficulty turning on the irrationality fails.
The other part of the deterrence is that The enemy believes that Iran prefers death rather than retirement. But this belief cannot be achieved, because there are always alternatives. Bashar al -Assad preferred to leave Damascus last December to reuse chemical weapons, which means that before the end of his regime. Iran has also suffered from difficult strikes so far, Without proving a serious commitment to Israel or the United States.
This is where the art of real deterrence begins. The countries they have Nuclear and doctoral weapons design messages that convince the enemy that they “can already use the bomb”. This position creates a lot of pressure to enter the weapons competition. But Iran, with its many problems, is not in a good position to compete with more richer and more advanced opponents.
The fact is that the failure of Iran’s deterrence is due to Weakness points in different levels of the voltage scaleThe weaknesses that cannot be solved with a pump in the top of this scale. Iran has been forced to carry out its attacks with lazy targets and previous intelligence, because it knows that its capabilities are less than those in Israel in the middle levels.
Commitment to ballistic and unique nuclear missiles
Los Ballisti missiles are the most important ability of Iran. However, two waves of missile attacks against Israel left only one dead, including a Palestinian. This was Iran’s weak response, in front of the exact and effective strikes of Israel. Iran’s leaders promised an answer, but months passed and there was no response. Everything is at the highest level of the tension scale, and Israel has a pan with the handle.
A The nuclear bomb will make Iran more fearful of war without barracks Thus, I will create a deterrent against more ambitious targets, such as changing the system. But if the enemies have limited targets, such as taking positions, the mutual extermination threat is not effective.
worst, The presence of a nuclear pump does not mean that it can be used. Even if they built a portable bomb, the enemies can prevent them from shooting at it. Israel and the United States have the ability to intercept a large number of Iranian missiles. Israel also managed to infiltrate over and over again to the Iranian nuclear program. You can cancel the pump holder’s missiles or discover and destroy the bases of launch before the attack. If the leaders do not give the shooting orders, then deterrence fail.
propagandaSome of these problems are almost insoluble. The Islamic Republic is full of spies because of its corruptionLack of popularity and economic weakness, and the United States and Israel will always be superior in terms of technology. Iran’s leaders may feel the temptation to solve or repair these problems, but any solution requires their risks.
Iran’s potential nuclear future
Iran can try to increase security by making it The nuclear structure is more confidential Or the return on power to shoot lower levels. But this increases the risk of stealing bombs or that the accidental nuclear war will explode.
Iran can try to build Missiles that avoid defense systems. He is now doing this with traditional missiles. However, the nuclear task will intensify this effort and push Iran to a dangerous and expensive competition with two more advanced states.
In the first years, Iran will get very few nuclear weapons. You have to take some of these few to the target. He can Hide nuclear missiles between traditional missiles through a huge missile attackAs in Ukraine, Russia uses Lesu. However, it is possible for Israel or the United States to distinguish the origin of publications and focus only on doubtful goals. If a missile base includes some bombs, the pomegranate is ignored from other rules.
propagandaThe enemy can even Attacking these rules Perhaps, using a nuclear weapon, because the larger explosion is more effective. This means that both Israel and the United States must be prepared at all times, and Iran must be on a state of continuous alert. All this increases the risk of accidental nuclear war.
Nuclear weapons countries are known with opponents who are well able to press. We are Improving missiles, increasing their arsenal, building recognition systems, and archers’ separationEtc. They responded.
But these competitions have their own logic: The enemy of his program sees and responds similarly. You also have to respond again, and the cycle continues, generously and does not end. These costs are not only eroding the economy, but also eliminates military capabilities elsewhere. Will you sacrifice the rest of your armed forces for nuclear weapons? What is worse, not all plans are determined.
Great Britain is a good example. The country had several programs to improve nuclear capacity, including the Skybolt program, which failed and caused a crisis in the British defense policy. Sky Everpara shield. Later, the Polaris system was updated with a program called Chevaline, which was successful, but it was several times more expensive than expected. This is the same high -cost competition that Iran participates.
propagandaNuclear transportation will be the key to Iran
Iran’s current nuclear options are only the first step in the road competition to weapons. An indelible bomb will weaken Iran’s deterrent. The legitimacy of the use of weapons against Iran is increasing, as it is withdrawn from the Adam-Walk Agreement. The United States was not excluded until the use of nuclear weapons Against nuclear weapons do not possess states. Now, if Iran has weapons, it is justified to use the bomb against it, especially with the administration of a republic in the White House.
The traditional attack will also be more likely in these circumstances. The best time for Israel’s attack is almost At the same time made by the non -transformed primary pump. In Dell, many Western countries and the region will also be happy with the Israel operation. Israel also has a mono -sides of nuclear programs, such as the attacks on the Syrian Reactor Deir Ezur in 2007 and Iraq Osirak in 1981. The primitive bomb that cannot be used against Israel will not only have a deterrent effect, but will increase the risk of the attack.
Thus, it will be that More wisely they will close their ears before the deceptive nuclear weapons song. The acquisition of the bomb would put Iran in a competition that will not solve or benefit major exposure problems. Nuclear Iran is not only bad for the world, but also for Iran itself.
