Why does climate models mistake the Arctic heating and how do scientists correct them?
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propagandaIf you ask Why the Arctic temperatures? It increases a lot Faster than expectedScientists from Kyushu University believe that they have found an answer: it is in clouds.
In study It was published in “Ocean-LOND-ATMOSPAREE ResEARCH”, researchers at the University of Kyusho Analysis of 30 major climatic models And compare them with satellite notes to cloud patterns in the Arctic. Discover a generalized modeling error.
Most simulation Exaggeration in estimating the amount of ice It reduces the amount of liquid in the winter clouds in the Arctic. It may seem unimportant detailsBut it has severe consequences for the accuracy that scientists can predict with one of the most sensitive areas on this planet.
Clouds can act as a thermal hypnosis on the Arctic
The Arctic is heated Between three and four times faster than the average world. One of the main reasons is the interaction of clouds with heat. In the summer, the clouds are called mixed stageThat contains all of the snow crystals and liquid water above, reflects sunlight, and the surface cooling. But in the dark winter months, these same clouds are keen on heat and surface isolating as a thermal hypnosis.
“The higher the liquid water contained in these clouds, the better the heat,” said Momoka Nakanychi, the joint author of the study. However, you suggest most of the models The clouds contain lower ice than it contains. This can explain why rhythm Arctic warming In recent decades, predictions have overcome. I can also change Future expectationsBut not for the way you can think.
The future can be less terrifying than it appears, but the present is worse
The Arctic also rises, The ice of the clouds becomes liquidThis increases its ability to attract heat. This creates a short -term situation known as the name “Reactions from clouds”, To accelerate heating. However, the investigators add, this is an end.
Once Clouds are rich in liquidThey start absorbing heat and generating it on the ground completely. This means, Additional warming Once anything changes, because clouds already regulate the heat as possible.
On the condition Many climate models They do not accurately represent the amount of liquid already, they may be Predicting more than possible warming in the future. In other words, they reduce warming today and exaggerate its appreciation tomorrow.
According to researchers, Correcting this defect cannot improve not only expectations in the ArcticBut advanced phenomena predictions in other parts of the world are affected by polar systems.
The damage can actually occur
The study adds Another context of an investigation Alexionadura, which was published earlier this month in “Communications Earth & Environment”. According to this study, even if Global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees CelsiusWe can provoke Improvised melting From the huge layers Greenland Polar Ice Antarctic clips, which will cause sea level to rise several meters away, even in optimistic emissions scenarios.
Both studies indicate the same truthOur understanding of the polar areas, from clouds to melting ice, at the height of reality. If climatic models continue to depend on the monitored trends, The world can be surprised by faster changes Among the provisions of sea level, severe meteorological phenomena and the collapse of ecosystems.
In the words of Takuro MichibataA joint author of the study on clouds: “Correcting these models is essential not only for the northern pole, but to understand its effect on time and climate change throughout the planet.”
