This is what we know about Iran’s nuclear bomb: What is the role of the European Union?
Iranian officials insist that their strategy depends on the exercise of pressure on negotiations and deterrence without crossing the red line. But Western intelligence sources say Iran is “about to disarm nuclear.”
propagandathe Iranian nuclear activity Began 1950Ironically, with American help Inside the program framework Peace atoms. Now, however, the United States wants to end. Tehran installed a 5 -megawatt research reactor at the University of the Iranian capital in 1967, with the enrichment of uranium 93 % of the United States.
In a contract 1970He resorted to European countries to continue developing their nuclear program and signed a contract with Siemens in West Germany to build a Bushehr nuclear power plant, which is a project Russia has completed it After the 1979 revolution.
With the revelation of Natanz and Ark in 2002, The West increased the severity of their sanctions And pressure on the Islamic Republic of Iran. he Comprehensive comprehensive work plan (PaicHe was signed on July 14, 2015, but Trump retired from him on May 8, 2018, and Iran, in response, approached Manufacture of an atomic bomb.
Tehran says his nuclear activity It is “peaceful”But what is prohibited today in school something In ShariaIt can become somewhat legal tomorrow thanks to FET Shi leader.
Iran and the nuclear bomb, three scenarios
The most likely scenario is that Iran is about to build a bombBut he did not make a decision to build it. Tehran now enriches 60 % uraniumWhich – which It can quickly reach 90 % It is necessary to manufacture atomic weapons. Iranian officials insist that their strategy depends on the exercise of pressure on talks And deterring without crossing the red line. But Western intelligence sources say Iran is “about to disarm nuclear.”
The second scenario is probably: Iran decided to build a bomb, but it did not put it into practice. If Iran is looking for a nuclear weapon, you can get the enriched uranium needed to produce an atomic bomb. Also, the Islamic Republic does not face a challenge in building the eyes and the launch platform because ballistic missiles such as khorramshahr and Sajil have the ability to transfer lowering.
The third stage: Iran built the bomb, but secretly. There is no final evidence for this statement by any intelligence agency, and there is no doubt Atomic PakistanWhere the conditions are worse than North Korea expects, most likely, The structure of his government will disintegrate Why The Iranians do not want to be like North Korean citizens In any way.
Iran is the most punitive country after Russia
Iran is the most punitive country in the world after Russia. but, The Iranians live under the imposition of sanctions for 46 years. With the supposed strategic patience, about to collapse, Tehran has always found ways to continue; from Expanding their relationships with China And Russia to give models and clients to sell the oil that has been approved.
But now, high inflation, low RIAL value, people’s discontent and overwhelming sanctions put Iran in a difficult situation; The same pressure that forced Tehran to accept the agreement on the comprehensive comprehensive action plan (PAIC) in 2015, The pressure is greater than before. Tehran knows that in today’s world he cannot live unnecessarily to global interaction.
Preserve “The current situation”An agreement or war with Israel and the United States of America.
IsraelThat have nuclear weapons and did not sign the treaty not to spread nuclear weapons (TNP), He is committed to the doctrine of its principle To not allow you to go or any neighboring country, obtain nuclear weapons.
basis Israel is preventive attacks Against the Iraqi reactor in Ozirak in 1981 and the attack on nuclear facilities in Syria in 2007 was the same belief. The United States, nor Europe, not even strategic allies in Iran, such as Russia, want Iran with nuclear weapons.
Can Europe avoid war?
Iran has begun The largest conflict in Europe since World War II Through its remote planes, a bold effort only to please and The Russians accompanied In international equations aimed at reducing global pressure and at a high cost: a more intense confrontation with the West and the European Union. The justification for Tehran was that the Europeans always behave with the United States and against Iran, and that they had to make a difficult decision based on their national interests.
the The lack of confidence of the Iranian leader for the Europeans No less than it towards the United States. He said: “The confirmation of the Europeans that Iran does not fulfill Iran does not fulfill their obligations is a matter of strength, as it is equal …
The United Kingdom, France and Germany, La ‘troika’ EuropeanAs a signature on PAIC, They will not have the ability to “Snapback” or the activation mechanism for So Restore all international sanctions against Iran As of October 18, 2025, on this date, The applicable penalties end In the 2015 United Nations Resolution.
In recent months, the possibility of activating this mechanism has been discussed before the above deadline. In the event that a new agreement is not reached or Resolution 2231 of the Security Council was extended by that time, Western countries may decide to use this mechanism. On October 17, the deadline for the use of the activation mechanism ends Once that period has passed, the tool cannot be used.
propagandaThe role of Europe before a new nuclear agreement
While Trump does not have an important role for Brussels, Europeans can play a major and influential role in reaching new access. The nuclear agreement Providing economic incentives to Tehran.
Tensions and Instability in the Middle East We are Impact on Europe’s security and economyAnd countries like France and Germany are not indifferent to economic interactions with Iran if there is a relative improvement in relations and understanding.
However, the European Union, under the influence of Washington, was not independent or effective when providing effective guarantees to Reducing US sanctionsAnd if the talks end in a dead point, the war and the attack of the United States and Israel against Iran, the European Union, in the most optimistic situation, will be satisfied with opposing the war, but it cannot avoid it.
Go bArkos de Iran in the Middle East
Trump says he is ready to negotiate with Iran if “Tehran is completely abandoned” his nuclear program, and from now on, any snapshot of Hotz Its responsibility in Iran is responsible. Therefore, no US agreement with Iran will be a nuclear and economic. The missile capacity on Iran and its alternative satellites They will be the main axis of negotiations and a possible agreement.
propagandaWhether in terms of sovereignty or within society, the Iranians claim their “place in the international system”, with or without a verse (high Shiite religious authority). Iran will make concessions in the nuclear field and stop enriching uraniumFor example, but it will not win his question: dismantling the missiles, Hezbollah and Hut, its floating boats in the Middle East.
Oil: Barakat and benefits of the Iranian economy
Iranian idealism is impossible without Oil exportthe The main artery of the economy. The export of pistachios, the carpet that achieved Iranian applause, nor the missiles and remote planes can fill the oil vacuum derived from the oil to the government and a nation still lives from low bread and gasoline.
Iran, which is suffering from the Dutch disease, was not able to move forward with a single oil -based product. the Abundance And his strong dependence on his income has harmed the republic.
Do I have another option to reach an agreement with Trump?
Yes. In exchange for the dynamics of the oil economy Ease and neglecting the Arab countries in the vicinity of the Persian caliphate; An option that does not think about most men in the field of Iranian diplomacy and indicates, for example, to the fate Colonel Gaddafi In Libya.
propagandaThe only Iranian option is to negotiate and negotiateSomething besieging; Maintaining the “current situation” and avoiding the maximum pressure from the United States is the best possible choice for them, but this time, Iranian sovereignty will allow them to gain an easy time until the end of the second round of Trump presidency. The United States, the Great Power and the “Great Devil”, and its head, Trump wants an agreement and gave Tehran two months of opportunities.
However, the choice of war Redunda for Iran. Trump’s maximum pressure will increase economic conditions, and if there is a war, Iran will not be the winner. If Iran attacked Arab ships, bases, or countries, or closing the strategic strait of umouz or Bab Al -Menbi in the hands of the Hutiians, it will also face a military response by the Arabs, and Tehran knows that Russia will not deserve their screaming.
As with PAIC, Iran will negotiate again. Before Tehran PAIC in 2015 in the hope of economic openness, but Trump’s withdrawal of the plan created great Lack of confidence in Tehran. This time they may accept a limited and interrelated agreement; An agreement does not link your hands at all, with more assured guarantees that the United States will not retire and maintain a “peaceful” nuclear program with more intense and comprehensive monitoring.
What threatens Iran’s sovereignty today It is not an attack by Israel and the United StatesBut internal discontent and the poor economic situation facing bankruptcy, and it seems that at the present time, the margin of maneuver that ends in Washington Trump and in another shock.
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