The opposite effect: Can Trump’s definitions end up with enlarged cooling in Europe?
propagandaWhen on April 2, the President of the United States, Donald Trumpadvertisement New and radical definitionsThe world prepared for the new apostasy in inflation, but about a month later, more and more economists and political leaders consider that the opposite happens.
Away from the calculation of inflation, definitions can end The trigger that pays Los European interest rates Still under. Those responsible for the European Central Bank (B.C.E.They have already started controlling their dialect. At the beginning of the month, the Governing Council unanimously reduced the interest rate from the ease of deposit at 25 basic points, Up to 2.25 %.
The European Central Bank President, Christine Lagarde, has alluded that the movement of 50 points has also been discussed. It seems that the announcement of American definitions The position Frankfurt tendsWhere political leaders now give priority to the risk of growth.
“We are witnessing the impact of customs tariffs on PMI numbers, on the intentions of purchase, in employment intentions,” Lagard said in an interview with “The Washington Post”, adding that “the tariff may be more detailed than inflation.” Lagarde also indicated that it is so The European Central Bank is likely to review its growth prospects At his next meeting in June.
Low prices for raw materials, the strongest euros and the weakest demand
Oil prices have decreased by more than 15 % since the beginning of April, while the European Laws of the Dutch natural gas has decreased by more than 22 %. this Cooling the energy market It reflects the expectations for slowing the growth of the world, especially if duty Americans restrict commercial flows and reduce business confidence.
At the same time, The euro is strengthened against the dollarAnd thus reduce imported inflation. There is another force that feeds inflation, especially in Europe, expected Restore global goods. According to Giovanni Pierdomnico, an economist from Goldman Sachs, the American definitions will create surplus global supplies of about 300 million dollars (280,000 million euros). With the fall in American demand, this is likely to be part of that surplusespecially ChinaI am looking for you The road to Europe.
Previous episodes indicate about this 15 % of excess offer It ends in the euro area, which is equivalent to an increase of 1.5-2 % in the width of the goods. “This will be translated into a decrease of about -1.5 % of the level of basic goods prices, which corresponds to a decrease of -0.5 % of the primary IPCA,” said Berdomnico.
“China will get an extra capacityHe will want to transfer his exports somewhere, perhaps to Europe. Lagarde said this will have a moderate impact on prices.
The European Central Bank is expected to make more discounts
As inflationary pressures relax, the markets are increasingly applied to the European Central Bank New types of species before the end of the year. Bank of America is now expecting a low deposit Up to 1.25 % in DecemberQuoting “less growth, even low inflation, and that official interest rates continue to decrease.”
Recently, the bank reviewed its expectations The GDP of the eurozone for him 0.8 % to 2025 and 1.0 % for 2026Highlighting the uncertainty related to definitions, the strongest euros and moderate global demand. It is expected GermanyLooking at its export -based economy They are to Auto sector tariff0.1 % contracts in 2025. France and Italy are expected to grow only 0.4 % and 0.7 %, respectively.
It adds the fall of salaries to the shrinkage direction. Bill Devini, head of ABN Amro’s total economy, said that the salary control index decreased to 2.7 % in the first quarter, the lowest level since the epidemic. According to Diviney, “The non -fading powers mean that it is so possible The European Central Bank reduces species Up to 1.5 % in September“.
Diviney added that the latter Even eurohe Financial conditions stiffness and Download energy prices They strengthened the arguments in favor of more relaxation. “Our conviction that inflation will be less than 2 % of the European Central Bank at the end of the year has increased.”
Although the European Central Bank interacts with European conditions, the risk Stagnation is maintained in the United States on the horizon. Alexander Stot, an economist from Goldman Sachs, said that in previous sessions, most European economies entered the recession in the three quarters after a. American shrinkage. “We have already expected small contractions for Germany, Italy and Switzerland in the third quarter of this year,” he said.
Although they have not yet fulfilled The effects of commercial tariffs From President Trump, Early market response Policies indicate that inflationary fears may be exaggerated. On the contrary, the decrease in the prices of raw materials, the weak demand and the reinstumination of the global supply creates an harmless environment that can be forced B.C.E. A Speed up your relaxation cycle In the coming months.
