The International Monetary Fund will announce a “remarkable decrease” of growth expectations through the tariff war, but it ignores the recession
Donald Trump, the war of definitions launched by the President of the United States, will lead to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) He announces “remarkable sales” for Growth expectations And a greater increase in prices, but not the recession. The warning was launched on Thursday, its administrative director, Crystalina Georgiviva, in one of the works before the spring meetings of the organism and the World Bank, which begins next Monday, April 21.
In a speech focused on the consequences of the current commercial crisis, Georgiviva recalled that uncertainty was “expensive”, and warned of the risks of loss of confidence that is created between economic agents and claimed to the countries that apply Ampest repairs to “putting your home in order”.
The International Monetary Fund is responsible for the resistance that the global economy had shown in all previous crises (Covid, energy, inflation, through the war in Ukraine …) is placed again by the restart of the global trade system. “The fluctuation of financial markets increased. And the uncertainty in commercial policy literally in clouds.to caution.
In his opinion, commercial tensions are the result of erosion of confidence in the international system and among the countries because although global economic integration has led to the exit of a large number of poverty and has improved the situation in the world as a whole, Not everyone benefited from it. Georgiviva explained that these tensions “resemble a bowl that was floundering for a long time as it boils now.”
Consequently, commercial abnormalities – identification and non -sharp barriers – may nourish the negative perception of a multilateral system that cannot provide equal conditions. Added to this debate about national security. According to this logic “a wide range of strategic goods, From computer chips to steelIt must be manufactured at home, and it is worth paying for that. The head of the International Monetary Fund says: “
“Commercial tensions resemble a bowl that was flowing for a long time and boil now.”
Georgieva highlights how Modern increases, stopping, climbing and customs tariffs They sparked an effective tariff for the United States At levels that were not seen “in several life” And remember that Previous episodes indicate that commercial partners are not the only ones who pay it the highest definitions. Protection does not erode long -term productivity, in addition, some economic sectors of some countries can be overwhelmed by cheap imports, while others suffer from scarcity.
Less developed, more inflation
All this leads the body to a warning that “new growth expectations will include great sales, but not the recession.” The International Monetary Fund is also considering an upward review of inflation expectations for some countries. Given these expectations, the multilateral organism calls on governments to mobilize efforts and double. “In a world of uncertainty and repeated turmoil, There is no room for delaying reforms It aims to enhance economic and financial stability and improve growth capabilities, “Georgiviva’s messengers.
On the one hand, countries that have a general debt level must work in a proactive way to restore sustainability, although this involves the “difficult decision” to search for the restructuring of their debts. Of Duties that the fund puts executives There are also banking reforms, capital markets, competition policy and intellectual property rights and calls them to prepare for the spread of artificial intelligence.
The International Monetary Fund puts the duties of Europe, China and the United States of America
“In many cases, the state can do much more to reduce obstacles to private companies and innovation, in other words, eliminate self -injuries,” says Georgiviva, noting that the body that helps the heads in this task. In the case of the specified Europe, The financial expansion of Germany “designer” to facilitate spending on defense and infrastructure The local demand, as well as community policies, will motivate the competitiveness by deepening the unified market.
“Europe needs a banking union. Europe needs the Union of Capital Markets. And Europe needs less restrictions on internal trade in services. Georgiviva says the list is long. It barely advanced 0.9 % in the entire last year.
A China He invites him to apply policies to enhance chronic special consumption. Among them, the International Monetary Fund recommends reducing industrial policies and state participation everywhere in the industry; Improving social security networks and reducing the need for preventive savings; Third, tax support to address weaknesses in the real estate sector.
Finally, with regard to the United States, the fund considers that the main challenge is to place federal public debts on a decrease. “To do this, it will be necessary to significantly reduce the federal budget deficit, which will require, among other things, will require spending,” says Crystalina Georgiviva.
