Omm warns of years of record temperatures and severe meteorological phenomena
by Euronus Green Fool AP
Published •The last update
propagandaPrepare for several years of Heat This leads to Earth to the maximum fatal, burning and uncomfortable, according to the second major weather agencies in the world. There is 80 % possibilities The world brings together another record annual in the next five years, and the world is likely to return to it Overcoming the international threshold From the warning that was established ten years ago, according to five -year expectations, published on Wednesday By the World Meteorological Organization (OMM) And the weather office in the United Kingdom.
“The increase in the average temperature in the world may seem abstract, but in real life it is translated into a A greater possibility of severe weathering phenomenaNatalie Mahwald explains the climate of Cornell University, who did not participate in the accounts, but confirms that it is logical. “
Why everything that matters tenth
With every tenth degree degree that the world is hot due to the disposable climate change. ”We will test a The highest frequency Y More extreme phenomena Johann Roxterom, director of the Potsdam Institute, said to investigate the impact of the climate, in Germany, in Germany, which did not participate in the investigation, especially thermal waves, but also drought, floods, fires, hurricanes or hurricanes enhanced by the influence of men).
According to the two agencies, there is also a possibility, although it is small, before the contract ends, the annual temperature of the planet exceeds the goal of the Paris Climate Agreement. Reducing heating to 1.5 ° C And access to the worrying number 2 ° C Heating since the middle of the eleventh century.
There is 86 % possibilities about what One of the next five years exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius and 70 % possibilities that A group of five years I go beyond this global landmark, and they calculated.
Las Expectations They come from More than 200 expectations Via Computer simulation For dozens of international centers for scientists. Ten years ago, the same teams estimated that there is a similar possibility – about 1 % – that one of the next few years exceeds the critical threshold of 1.5 ° C. But that happened last year.
This year, a 2 ° C increase Above the year before the industry Enter the equation Likewise, the head of the long -term weather forecast in the United Kingdom, Adam Skyev, and the scientist Lyon Hermanson as “shocking”. Hermanson said: “This is not something that no one wants to see, but this is what science tells us.” Two degrees of heating are the secondary threshold, which is less likely to break, which is determined by the Paris 2015 agreement.
Technically, although in 2024, 1.5 ° C was registered more than the pre -industrial era, The Paris Agreement threshold for 20 yearsSo it was not overcome. According to Chris Hiite, director of the World Meteorological Climate Services, taking into account the past ten years and providing the next ten years, the world may be warmer in the past century.
What does this mean for time around the world?
Expectations indicate that in the next five years, the average temperature will exceed more than 1.5 ° C to the pre -industrial era, which will expose more people more than ever at the risk of injury Dangerous heat wavesWhich will lead to more deaths and serious health consequences, unless the population can protect better than the effects of heat. We can expect too forest fires The most dangerous atmosphere dries the landscape.
The ice will melt in the Arctic – which will continue to heat 3.5 times faster than the rest of the world – and the seas rise faster, according to Hiite. What usually happens is that global temperatures rise as if they were installed on a mechanical ladder, with Meteorological courses The scientists said that the interim and the natural of the ninho that act as a lean up or down on this mechanical stairs. But recently, after every leap from the Neenio, which adds warm to the world, the planet does not reduce much again, if it is. “The registration temperatures became immediately New naturalRob Jackson, climate scientist at Stanford University, said.
