Ice rivers will take centuries to recover if global warming exceeds 1.5 ° C, according to the study
by Euronus Green
Published
propagandaMountain ice rivers They will not recover for centuries If global warming temporarily exceeds 1.5 ° C, according to a new study. This is the first study that It mimics the change of ice rivers Until 2500 in “Speaking Scepse”, where the planet exceeds 1.5 ° C to 3 ° C before cooling again.
Since the current climatic policies indicate a warm land of approximately 3 degrees, the study led by the University of Bristol (UK) and the University of Innsbruck (Austria) provides a vision for a possible future. Another is offered Urgent request to correct the training course We carry it.
“It is clear that such a world will be much worse for the ice rivers of the world in which the 1.5 ° C. “Our goal was to discover whether the ice rivers could recover if the planet was cool again. It is a question that is asked by many people:Ice rivers will grow again during our lives Or is our children? Our results indicate this, Unfortunately, no“.
Why 1.5 ° C is a big difference for iceotilities?
2024 was the most hot year And the first natural year that exceeded 1.5 ° C. The goal of Paris Agreement From reducing global heating to 1.5 ° C higher than the previous industrial levels – which will increase climate disasters after that – they are based on long -term averages, so we have not passed after the line.
But it seems more and more likely, because the United Nations Meteorological Agency warned last year that there are nearly a 50 % possibilities The average temperatures in the world between 2024 and 2028 exceeds 1.5 ° C
To find out what this means for ice rivers in the world, scientists They simulated a stage Where global warming continues to increase to 3 ° C about 2150, before descending to 1.5 ° C in 2300 and settling. Under these circumstances, ice escapes can lose up to 16 % of their mass in 2200, compared to a world that never crosses the threshold of 1.5 ° C, and 11 % more in 2500.
This adds to 35 % that is already melted even at 1.5 ° C. The melting of the ice rivers since 2000 Sea level has already increased in about 2 centimetersWhich turns the melting of the ice into the second factor that contributes more to the rise in sea level, after expanding the water due to the ocean heating.
Ice ice will not recover up to 2500
Our models show that the great polar ice rivers will take them Several centuries, if not thousands of years, to recover from the exception of 3 degrees Celsius“Lillian Schuster, the lead author of the study, recently published in the” Nature Climate Dchang “magazine, and researcher at Innsbruck University.
Search excludes both Ice layers The polarity of the world. “In the case of smaller ice rivers, such as those in the Alps, the Himalayas and the Endezes Mountains, the healing They will not see future generations, but it is possible that the year will be 2500The fluctuations of melting water from the ice rivers in these mountainous areas have a significant impact on the societies in the direction of the river.
In the ponds where the ice rivers grow again after the peak of temperature, the surface ice hygiene is reduced more than if it settles, a phenomenon that scientists call “waters of vagina”. “We noticed that nearly half of the studied basins 2100Explica Lilian Schuster.
“It is too early to determine the effect it will be, but we have The study is the first step Towards understanding many of the complex consequences of overcoming the climate of water systems fueled by the iceberg and increasing sea level. “
“Overcoming 1.5 degrees Celsius, even temporarily, guarantees the loss of ice rivers for centuries. Our study shows that Many of this damage cannot be eliminated Without more, although the temperatures later return to safer levels, “it is saved to maussion”. Whenever we are late to reduce emissions, we will download future generations with irreversible changes. “
