It has yet to be started | Examination

The March Treasury Minister ends with the re -IST start, when the third round of the Zeniel & Quest survey is transmitted, the President shows the loss of additional popularity and approval. At the same time, Donald Trump’s definition of what Brazil’s frame is like in the mutual tariff scheme.

It is advisable to have a command and agenda to the economy again, and the Republic, Brazil and the United States can be less harmful to break the president. And government policies lead to economic goals such as investment level rather than elections.

But this is not yet this time.

It began for new guidelines of Government Communication Secretary Sidonio Palmeera. Initially, new actions in the economy had effects except advertising. At the beginning to understand what Donald Trump’s plan is.

President Lula is still committed to recover his approval levels, but nothing has changed on the economic grounds. We continue in the situation TroxisAnd this trend seems to be getting worse the problem because the government has taken new steps on the street Expansionists. The operational indicators are good for the market and anger to display the retreat. But not the palace. It seems to be established by unruly dynamics, where the government’s response to an unfavorable popularity rate is the perfect contrast to what it is.

It is difficult to get to the end of this instability. The beginning is the beginning to say how far we go. The level of financial tension is very high.

BCB followed its course as exposed as exposed: At the 269th Copom meeting, on the 19th, Selic increased to 14.25%, unanimous vote, Guidance With the successful landing equation of Gabriel Galipolo in the previous, and company presidency. There are still a pair of adjustments in this high cycle, perhaps the lower size, expected torn, and then follow the maintenance of a few months. The loose cycle looks very fast and more as the cooperation of the economic policy. It seemed to be a plan except for the route.

The problem is that there is no cooperation of the financial policy to change the balance of risk and inflation to the goal. The outer view is “challenging”, almost congratulations to Trump, and expectations “unknown. Copom vocabulary makes things more scientific.

However, all of this, the minister’s two good programs -income reform and workers’ credit (new payroll) -although there is no direction. The minister walks with fine snow, trying to serve the President and not intensifying Troxis.

New measures should contribute to the popularity of the President – and contribute to the minister’s popularity on the president – in the coming weeks (months?), When experiencing their effects, depending on the definitions of calibration and functionality. Inobestant, eclipse is good, especially the new payroll (“Worker Credit”, baptized by official marketing). The same is expected from extensional actions, unknown to the exact size of the stimulus.

It is not real that imagine is that the BCB’s effort to compensate for inflation in the success of these actions; Slowdown in contraction or economic activity not in government plans.

The new payroll is a good idea, built as modularly in recent years, as banks have sought principles to transport credit techniques to government officials and pensioners to CLT environment. The obstacles are the owner’s credit risk, the risk of employment disruption, the portability of the cargo, the others.

The new design may still be mature, but it seems to be already a vision solid, although it is limited to the balance of FGTs, in view of the news of e-social and warranty. Everything indicates that there will be progress in the functionality of the new type of credit, for which the cooperation of FGTs may be crucial. Since there are captive clients in active FGTS activities, it is always difficult to use the worker directly FGTS resources. However, in this government, if you look at the priority of the program and the presidential stress, everything must change.

But the most important news in March is that the good perception of the package was appointed as “income version”, in fact the bill sent to the Congress on the 18th and still to go to its final appearance. It is more necessary to describe the reception of measurement in Parliament ”Benign negligence“According to the American expression, the hard -translate clitch. Perhaps interesting apathy, or careful goodwill, because it must wait until opponents choose some kind of initiative and atmosphere.

There is so much curiosity on how the project will be adopted, or more precisely, how the government is thinking about funding the project. Reassance of the progressive table – “rounding” the limit of the exception range – this is a controversial part. This number is not ignored in the light of the regular “log” allegations of the table, resulting in a tax pulling, which means that the taxpayer will increase the nominal increase in his income and increase the taxpayer rate, which keeps him at a higher tax rate.

The Unafisco (National Association of Fiscal Auditors of the Federal Revenue of Brazil) Log at 167% (between 1996 and 2024). The first track’s regestation, as the government has proposed, is 121% (from 25 2.259 to $ 5,000), but the table is different, $ 5,000 and, shortened between 000 7,000. The final numbers will probably change; There will be a lot of discussion in Congress.

The truly controversial part of the project is involved in how the table is funded by the Reassum, which has risen to the president’s sanctuary. How much does it cost and where does the money come from?

These are questions for any cost growth project, but in this case, as in this case, as happened with emergency support values ​​in 2018, Congress did not expect Less Than the executive proposed. Congress will always be a partner of goodness and never accepts as the only master of evil.

The experience of the failed cost reduction package has made it clear that the government does not finance the initiative towards the cost. With this, the challenge to propose some tax growth, without taking more clothing; A very difficult task.

Many opportunities have been considered, and the Minister Haddad team has come to a clever formula after all.

The government’s proposal was targeted “Super Rich”, as the minister repeatedly said, but after all, “the tax on” great luck “(CF, Art 153, VII) or directly taxed to create, to create, directly “Minimum taxes for higher income” (individuals earning from R $ 600 thousand per year).

In fact, this proposal brings a “additional” income tax, to fall on “less paid”, and the taxpayer treats the ratio between the payment formula payment tax and the entire income to assess whether the taxpayer is in this category, including some of the already tax range and the rest of the tax range, accurate and in the council.

This is the fastest principle that is easily combined with the annual adjustment statement, as it is the new tab of the same program.

There are so many detail to the most accurate calculations, in this “very or less” measure or forming relationships between the individual and the legal. In the announcement, even without all definitions, the minister has submitted the numbers that are only the indicator of the minister, that is, imitations under hypotheses, however, they guide the position of the executives of the executive of the measurement in Congress.

According to these estimates Officers. Benefit To happen 7 2.7 thousand to 10 million taxpayers per year and burden To happen For each super rich it is 1 191,000 every year.

In the surface assessment, it is like additional emergency assistance, providing funding through income tax on income tax. This can be done with a large or smaller operation and many times.

Many experts usually reflect the account of the measurement cost and improve the number of beneficiaries. For example, the total cost of R $ 45 billion, and the resignation of 16 million beneficiaries, which produces the Scheme R $ 2,812, 50, maintaining a “super rich” of 141.4 thousand To happen Beneficiaries per year and annual expenditure To happen R $ 318 for super rich.

The precise effect of the measurement, as well as the end of negotiations began to be estimated. The parameters may change, as well as the roots of the financing of the measurement and discussion. However, from the perspective of the political marketing, the effects are better than the expacted, according to the minister who has an expansional influence, the “cost of justice” makes sense in the light of the “expenditure”, because it is to transfer income from those who protect the cost. With this article, the government should not completely ignore the tax growth. But it remains to be seen how Congress completes the equation to finance the measurement.

Therefore, the promise of the president’s campaign seems to be maintained, but the risk of kindness is very large and has worsened the economic situation, with the heating economy and inflation. But the old problem of the “logic of mass action”, concentrated clothing, and the risk of disturbing the benefit when faced with concentrated clothing. Or lose in a complex or trapped tax package. It is at the beginning of telling.

The Republic President, there is nothing wrong with the marketing campaign in the US in Brazil, as long as they do not produce irresponsible, tax or foreign trade policies. Many observers are expected to happen with Donald Trump and his fare and this will be the dominant thing in the coming months. Or not. It is at the beginning of telling.