Whale (Whale 3): What to expect from the first quarter results

A. Ok (Voucher) It should demonstrate weak results in the first quarter of 2025, which reflects the negative combination of the operational effects of the monsoon season in the North Brazil and the lower prices, the lower sales size and the impact of an unfavorable exchange rate.

Bloomberg’s consensus for statistics released tonight is $ 3.26 billion EBITDA, 2024 5% decrease in the same period and a gain of $ 1.52 billion in the same period, 9% in the same comparison.

Estimates of EBITDA are adjusted in the quarter and $ 3.4 billion from US $ 3.0 billion from Santandander and $ 3.4 billion.

Balanos Season: See the first quarter reveal calendar

A. The operational preview released by the company It shows that the production of iron ore in the annual comparison of 67.7 million tonnes has fallen by 4.5%, especially the reduction of the northern system, licensing limits and high rainfall.
However, whale exports were able to keep exports at 66.1 million tonnes, which increased 3.6% during this period.

The average price of the ore per ton. Dropped to 90.8, less than average spot ($ 98/t) and some houses such as City, $ 93/T. Reduction reflects low -quality gifts, and the sales mixture in the quarter is affected by the operational limit imposed by the atmosphere.

Another negative aspect is that this quarter is 7% true praise against the dollar, which reduces turning into income exporting companies. “The result of a strong gear should be reduced, the prices of international commodities are relatively elastic,” BTG said.

Although there are weak numbers in the ore, the area of ​​basic metals should be somewhat relieved. Nickel and copper production increased by 11% per year, especially the Voisy Base ramp-up. Santander has already pointed out, copper production (90.9 thousand tonnes) 8% exposed to prices.

Despite the low mood with this quarter, analysts maintain structural feedback for the action. Santander is the equivalent of sale, highlighting attractive valuation (EV/EBITDA 2025 of 3X), a minimum of 7%of CT dividend yields.

Considering the discount valuation, strong cash flow and shareholder policies, the action among international pairs recommends and reinforces the purchase of this action as an attractive choice.

Overall, the BTG, which is more careful in the field, maintains a neutral recommendation, but points out that the whale is followed by the Casition with a capital structure and strong cash production.