‘Smuggling of heaven’: How can Trump charges create the world’s largest black market
A new wave of commercial tariffs from USA CR China It paves the way to the emergence of “the largest black market of goods that have not yet seen in the world. From the evaluation consultancy WakalDonald Trump will see who will look at the large -scale tariff dropout – and with the capacity of the world.
In addition to more than 140% of tariffs against China, Trump also announced an exemption from May De Minis – This allows the entry of packages up to $ 800 without charge today – for products from Chinese, Hong Kong and Macao.
In practice, any sequence of these areas, even with a small value, will be taxed from May to $ 100, which will double in June. Only 10% of the goods of countries other than Mexico and Canada are taxed, which exempts the exception as long as it contains at least 70% of the products in products.
This tariff opens the gap arsenal to escape tariffs.
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“If the cracked agent wants to import Chinese items,” paste the seal in North America, “the boarding checks and send them to the US, there are no tariffs to pay,” the report said.
The practice of declaring less than real value to pay less tax is already widespread – and it is more common. This type of subvaluation is already very important: imports reported by the United States of China are more than $ 100 billion than the exports reported to China to the United States, which only increased the gap.
Although there are other technical factors describing this difference in bilateral commercial data, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Reserve has estimated that the subtraction of products in the US ports has responded to $ 55 billion from the US and US import data from the imbalance between the imbalance among the Chinese exports. “This figure can easily double or triple with new tariffs,” Nobkal warned.
The problem, the analysts pointed out, limited US surveillance capacity. Customs ports have only about 3,000 agents – that is, on average, the ability to see 50 containers per day for each officer across the country. Of about 30,000 US customs employees, only 40% of the airports work – ie 12,000.
These experts are divided between passport control, passenger screening and cargo check.
In 2023, 1.25 billion packages came to the US under the exemption. The current structure does not allow for more than the minimum fraction of this volume.
“This activity disability, for example, the US explains the difficulty in blocking the fentanil pre -emergence,” the report said.
Shakal believes that even though the big companies follow the rules and the reputation, the small and medium -sized companies should lead the tariff drop -out movement.
With the construction of tight margins and production chains to be designed, these companies have a greater incentive and less observation.
“For most SMEs, the choice is simple: escape the system or leave the market”Said the consultancy. Procedures such as cross exports, value underwear or use of third countries must become common methods.
The practical effect is the re -designing of global trade. In the coming months, these numbers show a decrease in direct imports from the United States through China, but it seems ‘decapling’ is actually a triangle: Chinese products are camouflaged by indirect means and minimum value outside China.
Wakal concluded, “The US can celebrate trade reduction with China.” “But this will be a surface success. American users continue to buy Chinese products – but they pay more.”
