America The main outfit business partner From Portugal to the United States to represent 2% of GDP by 2023, with the weight of goods to the United States. However, the orientation of the business policy of the new US administration increases the barriers to the entry of national goods in the country, that is, increased customs rights on the import of goods.
In this context, Panco de Portugal (PDP) estimated the amount of economics and Portuguese companies to reveal the US market, and decided that national sectors are at risk for the customs charges of Donald Trump’s administration. Production of textile production, non -mineral products (This includes glass, porcelain products and cement), Drink industries, computer equipment, communication, electronics and optics and leather industry.
In all of these stronger export sectors, the percentage of companies with appropriate exposure to the US market ranges from 8% to 12%, details a The study of the new economic bullet From the Central Bank managed by Mario Senteno.
BDP explains, “The US’s face rates range from 0% to 2% of the value of Portugal’s exported products”, although “the value of export is affected by 6% of the value of 10% of the fees”.
Therefore, it depends on factors such as the impact on the export of Portuguese to make US fees worsen The amount of increased customs rates Every type of Portugal’s exports to the American market is good and their weight. “
In addition, “the reaction of exporting companies, in a dynamic environment where new markets are searched ChangesConsumer performance and levels of prices Relatives of internationally trading products will also determine the impact of new fees, ”the central bank says.
In practice, by imposing material charges, “the Will take care of the price of US consumer goods and will reduce the requested amount as a result“According to the PTP, exporting companies can alleviate this effect by shortened their sales prices by shortening their sales prices, or, in the cases of multinational corporations, another response strategy may create productivity in the United States.
However, despite the cost of transportation for the final consumer, ” Move the production indicates a change in cost framework It does not apply to comparative benefits and makes this option impossible, ”he warns.
Adding companies can be indirectly affected by the changes in prices that their competitors perform in various markets or supply chains and production costs.
“The effects of payment changes, which Can be expanded by retaliation actionsThe study warns that exports are negative and the total benefit of economies “and” the adaptation of companies and public policies “.
Of the central bank’s advanced scenes, the increase in 25% of the US charges, especially the EU imported, will retaliate by the affected countries.
“This increase in fees is a Euro area gross domestic production sums up to 0.5% to 0.7% until the end of three yearsWith the most significant impact in the first year. “
In terms of the consequences of the Portuguese economy, the BDP estimates that GDP reduces the GDP by 0.7% up to the end of three years and accumulated in the first year.
In addition to the environment of the environment, with the negative consequences of the confidence of economic agents, with the negative effects of the confidence of economic agents, as a result of future business policies, their size and duration, the cost of retaliation and the prices of goods “Reduce investment and private consumption”.
In this structure, “the universal impact of the trauma is considered Overall reduction of 1.1% of GDP at the end of three yearsThe consequences have been concentrated in the first two years, ”says the Central Bank managed by Mario Senteno.
