The labor market is warm and should be interested in “the last”
Data from Labor market Analysts believe that the Brazilian economy is still warm, despite the rise of interest in September last year, compared to February results.
For experts who have heard CNNA. Unemployment rate This is the last to experience the weight of rates. However, the reactions should start to look more severe from the second half of this year.
However Unemployment Determined by national research for a continuous home model (Continuous pnad. Increased at 7%Employees and unemployed general registration (Cajed. Opening 71 thousand jobs In the month of the month, The worst result from 2020.
However, Bradesco’s research and financial studies tried to clarify “Although they were cooled in March, Labor market data Continue referring to it Financial activities include expression growth In the first quarter ”.
Despite the high interest rates in the country, there is a heating scene in the economy. In March, Central Bank (BC) has raised selic – The country’s basic interest rate – at 14.25% per year, at the highest level since 2016.
Interest is the main approach to BC trying to control inflation in the country. By raising selic, Municipality is essentially “money expensive”. This will increase the cost of credit, and consequently decrease demand, thereby reducing prices.
What did the economists heard CNN They explain that the reactions of the financial scene – whether it is slow or accelerated – is the last of the job market.
The appointment and removal are expensive and companies will “fall back Jolt” as much as possible.
“In general, when the slowdown begins, the companies, especially in the industry, prefer to maintain workforce as long as possible because they have a lot of qualified labor shortage,” said the Sao Paulo Commercial Association (ACSP) economist Ulyise Ruiz de Gambova.
“Even when the economy slows down, we observe net generation jobs for a while and, therefore, unemployment is not immediately affected,” he said.
Wave Capital Chief Economist Gilherm Gaburo believes that data released last Wednesday (30) is still reflecting the consciousness of the country.
He thinks that the impact of the BC’s monetary policy will reach the second part of this year.
“Cooling evidence”
“In the last readings, in the last readings, we have realized the expansion of the slowdown in the Brazilian economy,” said Inter Macro Economic Research Coordinator Andreo Valerio.
“With a clear standard of cooling, the next data to understand whether the moderation course in the operation is a smooth landing is very important, remember that BC’s recent monetary squeeze and more quarterly.”
Despite the conclusion that the activities of the labor market are above historical standards, the expectation of the financial agents has reached a very expression high.
In the Cage Reading, for example, downtown WAS due to February, which is a record month, With launching 431 thousand jobs.
However, the market is the result of about 200 thousand vacancies. In the case of Inter, bet 240 thousand new vacancies.
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Figuredo strengthens the fact that the labor market responds to the “backward” path to the economic scenario, but these advertising points out that although the economy is slow, it will help compose the data range.
In their latest interest decisions, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) BC has been highlighted, on one side, Stress from the labor market is one of the factors that affect the country’s high inflation.
On the other hand, it began to refer to probability The decline of the economy as one of the factors that lead to the board’s interest.
However, the next interest decision of Copom should not be affected by Wednesday (7).
“Since it is still in the process of high interest rates, it has to look at a lot of data to build the scenario. All data things, and it’s not too late, watershed,” said the former BC director.
He hits the hammer that the “watershed” economy for Copam is very strong in the economy and inflation data is very benign, which is not so at the moment.
Despite the “preview of inflation”, IPCA-15, Slowed in the monthly margin in AprilThe index follows above 5% of the accumulated in 12 months, the roof is 4.5% Inflation target by BC whose center is 3%.
Market estimates are also high at high prices, In spite of cooling in recent weeks.
However, despite the gradual and early data, the market sees the high cycle of Celic.
“This moment they are called ‘fine tuning’, at the end of the process, should not be more than two maximum levels. The reason for the external environment is required, and when it is necessary, it goes calm. It is very uncertain, which is a moment of calm, a moment of calm.
