Green Stulberger: ‘IF is a free class what PT thinks about us’

‘Frightening’ – Or, in good Portuguese, scary. How is it Louis StuhlbergerManager Green backgroundThe Lula Administration defines the growth of Financial Operations Tax (IOF) brought by last week.

The exaggeration of the film, which was chosen to describe the theme of a two -hour long exhibition about the world and domestic economy in the day of his legendary multimarket’s investors’ day.

Many detailed maps used to identify all their claims for the screen with the ‘toxic’ symbol, where it reads in bottles: ‘Danger, IOF’, (No gifts are laughs.)

“And Frightening See what the PT really thinks. This is the free psychological class of what PT thinks about us here, ”said the audience set up at the B32 Theater in the Whale Building, perhaps today the biggest symbol of Faria Lima.

“It’s” you are rich, be your real, you don’t have to buy dollars. If you want to buy a dollar, pay a toll for me. ‘ It is very scary.

In the view of the manager, the change must bring a higher price of the PT’s tail that overcome the election next year.

“Faria did not believe that Lima would win the PT. But if he wins, what should be expected at the cost of growing in the future?”

Wicked with IOF, worse without it?

According to him, there are two positive aspects that increase the Brazilian bag today.

First, the potential capital flow from the United States, which originated. Secondly in the election scenario, the feasible change in the economic agenda with greater financial responsibility.

The great counterweight, however, came from the financial situation – the market was an important danger of ‘solemnly ignored’.

“In addition to the natural optimism, there is this reading, if Miley can do what he has done, you can also tarsicio. There is an understanding that the Bad Inspector will repair the new government”, Rays.

Don’t buy green thesis. Since last year, the fund has been zero in its local show – it has also helped to resume positive performance The expression falls between January and April last year.

In 12 months, Green gives a yield of 16%, which is better than CDI because it is zero in the local bag, which is the main point for pulling negative performance on the home board and betting on the hedge package.

The manager was a relative of the good performance of the scholarship earlier this year. Considering the performance of Ibovospa since October 1, 2024 – Trump is favorite, but has not won the election yet, and the Lula government has fled the danger with the tax announcement associated with the IR’s exemption, which is only 6%of the scholarship’s profit, in accordance with the CDI.

According to him, this performance reflects the reduction of the risk award for action mostly, which is mostly related to the popularity of February, which shows a sharp increase in President Lula’s refusal.

“Oh Equity Risk Premium On October 1, he was 3.7%, which was definitely his long -term average. The last three months of 2024 led the disaster index to the worst level in history, 4.9%. Today, this indicator is 2.7%, which is below average. For me, it is very well priced, so it needs a structural change to walk the bag. ”

Returning to IOF, the manager is skeptical with the ability to prevent the government’s actions.

“The truth is that the Congress has never been a barrier to anything. You have to see if this stress is raising the price of the center. If Argentina has a center, it will not come where it comes ”Shot.

Stulberger did not completely dismiss the opportunity to repel actions – but still concerned.

“There is another problem: This billion has a financial problem without a revenue of 30 billion to $ 40 billion and the government does not reduce the cost, and still wants to grow. So it is bad with IOF and is worse without it.”

Bet on US inflation – and gold and bitcoin

Through the three -year -old inflation swap contracts, the US is in major positions in the wake of the rise in prices in the economy.

Today, what is embedded in prices is that the shock of tariffs should not be spread in the economy – it must be timeless and the economy and wages are very slow prices.

Stulberger, however, did not believe the effect was temporary. “Inflation is that black box: just one reason – Give me a reason – And blame rates to climb prices. This is a thing that lasts for a long time. History has lost the market 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024, which accelerates these trends, ”he said.

He uses the example of Kovid, classifying the Fed President himself as “temporary” for almost a year, before changing his mind. “At the time the United States had distributed money as never before and did an irrelevant inspector. This time it was not so, but some inspector would be for us and it was not small.”

Despite the recent dollar’s value reduction, the manager thinks that there is still space for the new waterfall – the patent of the Trump administration.

“We have been addicted to this expensive dollar model since 2015 and 2016. However, if you look at the story, it is still very expensive,” he said.

However, he does not bet on the new Euro Highs, considering historical levels and he already thinks at a very affordable price based on interest differences.

The largest space is in the fall of developing market currencies, he said – the real added.

At this event, he also started participating Bitcoin E. GoldIt represents 3% and 2.5% respectively in the portfolio.

“These two assets are not like to talk because no one hate because no one hate it because they got mad. It is worth noting that it is worthless but not worth it, you have nothing to do with it. But the fact is that they go up. But they go up.”

Multimercodos Valley

Stallberger has been saying that the multimarket industry with withdrawn from the Postcovid Peak has stressed the stallberger green performance from the years The CDI has exceeded every year since 2022.

The annual average return during this period is 14.51%.

“This is ok number. Do we want it? No, I want to distribute a larger alpha than that,” he said. “But winning the CDI every year, especially in 2023 and 2024, the Brazilian industry is difficult years, which is a presentation of our stability.”

Green has 17 billion in management today, with $ 55 billion in 2021. In September last year, the house had to be cut, and at that time the staff was reduced to 74 to 60 people.