The farm field increases the IPCA reference from 2025 to 5%, rather than goal ceiling | The economy

The Ministry of Finance has increased its projection from the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) from 2025 to 5.0% – above the target roof, from 4.5% – in the Macrofiscal Bulletin released on Monday. Previous Bulletin, Projection 4.9%in March, and published in February, “Retrospective and 2025 to 2024 document and what to expect from 2025”.

“This change reflects small surprises in the index’s variations in March, as well as slight changes in expectations in the coming months,” the SPE said in the bulletin. According to the Secretariat, in the scenario considered, inflation reduction “from September” is regularly observed.

For 2026, the IPCA projection is relatively stable, which develops from 3.5% to 3.6% in inflation target interval. “Since 2027, it is expected to change inflation in the middle of the goal,” he said.

For the 2025 National Consumer Price Index (INPC), SPE’s projection has increased from 4.8% to 4.9%, a A – internal availability (IGP -DI) for the general price index (IGP -DI) fell from 5.8% to 5.6%.

SPE pointed out that food inflation in February reached 7.9% in April from 7.1%. During this period, according to the bulletin, the potato is eligible for each inflation reduction and the largest coffee inflation. The highest prices of tomato and milk and dairy products have also contributed to the rise of February food inflation until April. “This increase was partially replaced by low fruit inflation, mainly due to decrease in papaya prices and due to inflation of rice,” he said.

Despite the increased food inflation collected in twelve months, some typical products of the Brazilian dish were recorded from the beginning of April to April, as the secretariat was compiled. Highlights of rice, beans and soybean oil prices, echoing record grain crop; And olive oil is related to the temporary withdrawal of import tariffs. “Since January to April, cattle and pig prices have also recorded the waterfall, although there is little size,” he said.

The SPE has updated expectations for Inpc from 2025 to 4.9%, compared to 4.8% of the last macrophazal bulletin. The 2026 reference reached 3.4% to 3.5%. Projection for IGP-DI fell from 5.8% to 5.6% this year and reached 4.9% in 2026, compared to 4.4% in the previous document.