The farm field increases higher GDP projection by 2.3% to 2.4% by 2025
The Ministry of Finance has once again increased the growth of Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP), from 2.3% to 2.4%. The estimate of 2026 was maintained up to 2.5%. This information is located in the parameter grid published by the Secretariat of Economic Policy (SPE).
Despite the adjustments, the folder estimates are significant than the Focus Report Mediums, which indicates an increase of 2.02% to the GDP by 2025 and 1.70% in 2026, according to the update made by the Central Bank on Monday.
“The review is about the high expectation of growth in the first quarter and the growth of agricultural production in the year,” SPE said about his assessment for GDP this year. “After speeding up the operation in the first quarter of the bank, the GDP is slow and the second part is close to stability,” he said.
After 1.5% of the instructions submitted by the March Bulletin, the farm expects a growth of 1.6% in the first quarter and in the first quarter. “The observed results are slightly better than the expressed -cost for industry and services, and this projection has led to a slight increase in the SPE,” the SPE said.
The acceleration of the year should be dragged through agricultural GDP, 6.3%increase. Earlier, IBC-BR, which is considered the “preview” of the Central Bank GDP, has increased by 0.8% from February to March with seasonal adjustment and 3.49% without adjustment. In the first quarter of this year, immediately increased by 1.30%, immediately compared to the previous quarter and was 3.68% compared to the same period 2024.
This folder offers the acceleration of services (2.0%) and 2.2%in 2025. “In the next year, growth is close to 2.6%,” the SPE said.
SPE hopes that GDP will cool in the intranual comparison, despite the predicting margin growth in the first quarter – GDP has a growth of 3.1% in the first quarter of 2025, up to 3.6% in the previous quarter. This decline mainly echoes the lowest growth for GDP services (2.4% in the first quarter of 2025, up to 3.4% in the previous quarter). In the fourth quarter of 2024, the agro should increase by 11.0% compared to a decline in 1.5%. In the case of the industry, the estimated expansion is 2.7% and acceleration compared to the previous quarter.
The tariff
The newsletter predicts that the intensity of trade tensions and the rise in global uncertainty will affect growth in Brazil.
For the agrarian technology team, US President Donald Trump’s rise in trade tariffs affects international commercial currents, which reduces the demand of goods and postponing investment and utility decisions. “In this scenario, it adversely affects the expansion of operations in the world and Brazil,” he said.
On the other hand, the SPE has considered the new business opportunities that emerged new business opportunities with the change in global trade dynamics. “Brazil can benefit by replacing US imports in most affected countries due to tariffs.
