The eclipse 2024 YR4 does not threaten the earth, but the IDE with the moon. The probability of the effect increases to 3.8% – science
Remember the eclipse 2024 YR4? If he knew about the world of astronomy, between the end of last year (when it was found) and the beginning of this year, the news showed the possibilities Get the IDE with the earth.
The calculations of the scientific society are trying to make the results of the space moving in space, especially with the IDE with the earth. You The data available at the beginning of the year indicates that this time is true (Although small). If there is a confrontation, it will have a place in 2032.
In the next month, more data is available and the calculations are continued, until the end of the resolution Already the asteroid trajectory There is no danger of ISion with land. Not in 2032 or in the next year. Now more data points out another opportunity: Unleash the confrontation with the moon and a few more details.
Infrared observations from James Web Space Telescope 2024 YR4 is allowed for more accurate information about the size of the asteroid, which is 53-67 meters must be measured. When you compare A NASA10 -Story is equivalent to building. The The previous estimate is a little horrible And the diameter of 40 to 90 meters is indicated from the light measurements displayed by geography telescopes.
Terrestrial Telescops and James Web combined with two data resources, and there is another probability rate that has been reviewed: The possibility of ISION with the moon, which went from 1.7% (at the end of February) to 3.8%.
Credits: NASA
. Impact probability increases to 3.8% – SAPO TEK “>
Oh From the Center for Study of the goods near the land of NASA. If the friction occurs at the end, it is scheduled for December 22, 2032, but It is worth remembering that there is still much more likely to happen: 96.2%. But if the impossible happens, NASA assures that this effect does not change the orbit of the moon.
Available data to update these calculations, but from now on it is less, because In the coming weeks the 2024 yr4 path pushes it out of the ground and the observation from the earthly telescopes is no longer possible. It is possible to obtain more data from James Web, which is expected to be in late April or early May.
However, in March has been removed from the hypothesis of the IDE with the earthBut the information available in February is still indicated by a 2.8%collision probability, which went through 0.001%.
