Market reduces projection for inflation by 2025, points out of sight

Analysts consulted by the Central Bank (BC) have reduced the projection for Brazilian inflation this year, maintaining the expectation of higher prices in 2026, according to a focus released on Monday (2).

The survey, which captures market awareness for financial indicators, showed that the expectation for inflation measured by the IPCA was now 5.46% at the end of this year and 5.50% in the previous survey. For 2026, the high price projection was maintained at 4.50%.

The center of the BC -Persed target is 3%, 1.5%tolerance margin up or down.

In the wake of data spread to the IPCA-15 last week, it slowed and exposed in May, resulting in a period of 12 months.

This rate increased by 0.36% in May, compared to 5.49% in April after 5.43% in the previous month and 5.40% in 12 months.

Weekly research with one hundred economists also estimates that Brazilian internal production (GDP) is expected to increase by 1.80% next year, which is higher than 1.70% growth in the previous week. For 2025, the expectation of the economic expansion fell to 2.13%, which was previously a gain of 2.14%.

In the Monetary Policy of the Central Bank, this year and the next basic interest rate is maintenance on the expectation.

Medium estimates for selic at the end of 2025 are expected to reach the rate of 14.75%and the rate of 12.50%at the end of 2026, respectively in the 18th week. At the moment, 20%per year.

In this Monday view, for dollar prices at the end of 2025, R $ 5.80, and R $ 5.90 at 2026.

The US currency drops from 6.8% from 6.8%, dragged by the price correction process after the end of last year and more uncertainty compared to US duty plans.