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The height of Tax on financial activities (IOF)The market was announced on May 22, surprised the market and surprised everyone.
That day, the government announced that the resources should be freezed from the government 2025 budget – what, in fact, occurred, R $ 31.3 billion with controlLula 3 has been the largest since the government opened.
After shock with the announcement Tax increaseAnalysts and economists began to analyze data to understand the effects of Tax burden.
For companies or customers, evaluation is unanimous: Expensive for credit companiesIt can stress prices and consequently, manage Inflation At high levels.
“Growth IOF It is possible to influence small companies in Brazil Bank credit And the capital market has no access. The IOF There is a risk to protein supply chains, industries and retailers about the danger of drawn. We also see The cost of inflation“, Listed in a report by the Bank of America.
Following the announcement, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad urged it to clarify AS Changes in IOF Do not affect Credit to people.
Before, the IOF on credit operations It has a fixed rate 0.38% and is 0.0041% daily. With the new decree, the rates are practically doubled: 0.95% fixed plus 0.0082% per day.
If the postnance collected over the weekend, if the pressure of measurement on capital ventilation, XP analysts came to a decision: “Actions are equivalent to an increase of 25 or 50 base points Selic rate“.
A. Selic Is The basic interest rate in the countryAnd through it Central Bank (BC) attempts to control Inflation.
Logic is as follows: In raising FeesMakes the municipality cost Credit And loans – roughly money earns money – it reduces the demand of capital and, finally, pressure on prices.
“However, growth IOF Does not have the same effect as an increase Basic interest rate On expectations of InflationIntertemporal consumption and exchange rate. However, it seems safe to say that A IOF In the base scenario of our gross financial team, the final increase of 25 base points scheduled in June, the current growth cycle is over, ”XP said.
With Inflation BC is still running than the goals followed Selic Is already high today, Fixed at 14.75% per year – The largest level in almost 20 years – at the last meeting of the directors of monetary authority.
In relation to the direct impact of the above Credit costWere, and,, and,, and,, and,.. Brazilian Federation of Banks (February) estimates the difference between 14.5% to 40% of the total effective costIn terms of Interest rates For short -term activities.
Following the logic of Expensive credit Leonardo Rosler, an expert in tax and business law, criticizes the action for discouraging demand for capital.
“A. Discharge Not only Happy creditBut it is discouraging consumption, prevents private investment and intensify the already weak national competitiveness. He believes that loan families, small entrepreneurs, producers and traders who rely on short -term financing are the main victims of this decision.
“The choice for the stagnation of families and the growing debt is a serious economic tenderness, which reveals complete divorce between adopted economic policy and the reality of the Brazilian economy.”
The desired effects were assembled by measurement Private sector by demolishing the decree.
“Such measures cause an increase in costs of companies, including the industrial sector, which has already been fined by uneven tax distribution and Trouble access to credit – Especially in an environment marked by most compensation and high bank spread. The effect is very negative on economic activities and prevents investment“, Sao Paulo (FIESP) points out the federation of the state federation.
According to XP, however, there is a hopes for a modest effect on companies.
XP analysis represents a limited impact on gains, mainly due to alternative financing lines, even the highest exposure to the capital (As a tool of IOF exception) This will least partially replace the highest costs.
Volnie Iing, Multiplake Manager’s CEO, thinks of its impact Alta du iof Beyond the economy Credit increase.
“When the government has a direct impact on the economy without a pre -conversation with the Legislative Assembly, it runs the risk of producing loud noise; and the market is losing pronunciation and reading that it is more fragile in financial driving.”
“It increases the perception of the accident, affects investors’ confidence and plans to plan companies. Not only the problem IOF taxBut in uncertainty. Ability is required to attend the economy, and this type of organizational noise produces the contrary, ”the CEO concluded.
