Researchers “ICTed” who is the new Pope; Understand
Researchers were able to “predict” that Robert Privost will be elected in the new Pope in the KCCLAE earlier this month. The group has created a statistical model, which is considered many factors and predicts which cardinals can become a positive.
Giuseppe Soda, Alessandro Iorio and Leonardo have applied the methods of social connection analysis at Rizzo Cardinal College.
“Our starting point is very simple. Even in the church, the import of relationships, the import of relationships. More connected, ear and central person are in the flow of information and become a consolidated person,” said Giuseppe Soda, a company teacher at Bokani University.
At the end of the study, they set up three rankings and classified the “trend” of cardinals. In one of the lists, Prevost is the bestWhen in another, a Brazilian quoted:
Top 5 port status:
- Robert Privost (Moderate, USA)
- Lazaro You Hung-Sik (Moderate Liberal, South Korea)
- Arthur Roche (Moderate Liberal, United Kingdom)
- Jean-Mark Hazel Nut (Moderate Liberal, France)
- Claudio Gugerotti (Moderate Liberal, Italy)
Top 5 in information control
- Anders Arborius (Moderate Conservative, Sweden)
- Pietro Peroline (Liberal, Italy)
- Víctor Fernandez (Liberal, Argentina)
- Gerald Lacroix (Moderate, Canada)
- Joseph Tobin (Liberal, USA)
Top 5 in coalition architecture capacity
- Louis Antonio Tagle (Moderate Liberal, Philippines)
- Angel Fernandez Artim (Moderate Liberal, Spain)
- Gerald Lacroix (Moderate, Canada)
- Fridoline Birung (Moderate Conservative, Congo)
- Sergio da Rocha (Moderate Liberal, Brazil)
However, researchers insist that they are not intended Assess the result of the conclveCreate a tool for “Oracle”, but “to read the context” “.
Explains the model
Researchers built a model using three major resources:
- Official Associations (Dicker of Roman Curea, commissions, advice and academies): This data reveals to whom and what organizational occasions work
- Episcopal Holy Lines: Each cardinal is ordered by others, and these “spiritual genealogy” enhance strong relationships of obedience and identity
- Informal relationships: Maps are through reliable journalistic sources, theoretical affiliations, guidelines, and client networks.
With this, they produced the “systemic map” of Cardinal College.
According to the University of Bokani, the discovery of the study is about the definition of three standards that determine the “importance” of the cardinal in the Patriarchal network. They are:
- Status
- Information control
- The ability to build a coalition
The first point is called “Centers of the Self -Survey”, which is connected not only to most of the Cardinals but also to the most effective.
The second is assessed by “centralized” of the media, identifying those who act as connection points between different groups.
Calculated using a compound indicator connecting the third point The group (This is how it is the ability to provide a part of a united group based on belief – Direct impact – by the center of the cardinal, measures how many direct connections he has (greater degree, greater impact and popularity) – and Strategic paper .
Finally, researchers believe that they have added a crucial item to the model: Cardinal age.
They explained, the model has a statistical correction based on the age of the pops selected since the 1800s.
